Missed-Call Text-Back ROI, Computed by Hand

Four variables, one multiplication: recovered revenue/month = missed calls/month × recovery rate × conversion rate × average ticket. Missed calls and average ticket come from your call log and your invoicing. Conversion rate is the share of conversations that becomes a job — 20–35% for emergencies, lower for considered quotes (orders of magnitude).

That leaves the recovery rate: the share of missed calls the text manages to reopen. Market players publish 30–60% — vendor figures, take them as orders of magnitude. The honest rule: compute at 30%. If ROI holds at 30%, it will hold in real life; if it only holds at 60%, you're buying hope, not a system.

The final line: net ROI = recovered revenue − subscription. Everything below applies this mechanics to three trades, by hand, number by number. You can replay each step with your own variables — that's the whole point of a transparent calculation.

Plumber. Measured: 25 missed calls/month, $350 average job. Step 1 — recovery: 25 × 0.30 = 7.5 conversations reopened. Step 2 — conversion: 7.5 × 0.30 = 2.25 jobs. Step 3 — revenue: 2.25 × $350 ≈ $788/month. Step 4 — net: $788 minus the $149 subscription ≈ $639 of margin recovered, every month.

Auto shop. 20 missed calls × 0.30 = 6 conversations; × 0.30 = 1.8 jobs; × $540 = $972/month. Net: 972 − 149 = $823. Here the math is clean: one and a half recovered jobs per month comfortably pays for the service, the rest is net profit.

Salon. 18 missed calls × 0.30 = 5.4 conversations; at 0.40 conversion (booking by text is easier than by phone) = 2.16 appointments; × $85 ≈ $184/month. Net: ≈ $35. The honest, tightest case: on new bookings alone, the salon barely wins — add the no-shows avoided by text reminders and last-minute slots refilled, and the ledger clearly tips to the right side.

Test the plumber on the most uncertain variable, conversion rate. At 15%: 7.5 × 0.15 × $350 ≈ $394 recovered, ≈ $245 net. At 30%: ≈ $788, ≈ $639 net. At 45%: ≈ $1,181, ≈ $1,032 net. Between the cautious and the favorable scenario the result triples — but stays positive throughout.

Now the worst of all worlds: 15% recovery AND 15% conversion. 25 × 0.15 × 0.15 × $350 ≈ $197 — still above the $149 subscription. This double floor is the real takeaway: with a low fixed price, nearly everything has to go wrong for the math to turn negative. And unlike per-minute billing, a fixed plan doesn't degrade as volume grows.

DIY: $29–79/month for SMS automation tools. The sticker price ignores the real work — writing templates, wiring the calendar, monitoring, answering conversations yourself. One hour of your time a week is four to five hours a month subtracted from billable jobs: DIY isn't cheap, it's mispriced.

Human answering services: $300–6,899/month by volume, extra minutes at $1.49–2.99 beyond the plan — verified published prices. The human quality is real; per-minute billing turns every success into an added cost. AI done-for-you: $149/month fixed, setup and tuning included — the cost is known upfront and ROI computes without surprises.

One last division: subscription ÷ average ticket = jobs to recover to break even. At $149/month: 0.43 job for the plumber ($350), 0.28 for the auto shop ($540), 1.75 for the salon ($85). In other words: one job every two to three months for technical trades, about two appointments a month for a salon.

The honest break-even compares against the right benchmark: not zero, but the cost of the status quo. Without a system, your current missed calls are worth — per section 2 — $184 to $972/month of lost revenue in our three examples. The subscription doesn't create a new expense: it replaces a continuous leak with a capped, measurable cost.